I Will Wait Upon The Lord

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Sculpture Particulars: I Will Wait Upon The Lord  mixed media
Width: 23 cms Heigtht:40 cms Depth:24 cms Weight:410 gms

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  158. The minutes of the FOMC s latest meeting will be released tomorrow at 2:00 p.m..

    The Street will crunch every word in search for a clue about Fed taper decisions expected at its September 17/18 meeting with a Bernanke press conference around 2:30 the 18th.

    The 20-year bond is overdue for a modest technical rally, on the heels of its three month decline. Since May 1, the iShares 20-year treasury bond ETF (TLT) has plunged 17.5%, which in terms of loss of investment value wipes out some 7 years of income.

    CONCLUSION:

    The dozens of stock charts I have screened are as ugly as those I would expect to see in the latter stages of a bear market when all hope seems to be lost.

    Well, all hope IS NOT LOST. This is a correction in a bull market that has the potential for getting a lot uglier if the Fed s taper efforts trigger ( or are perceived to have the potential to trigger) a further surge in interest rates and panic on the Street. Possible, but unlikely.

    As the Street ponders the possibilities of Fed taper, the market will probe for a comfort level.

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    Confidence that the Fed can pull taper off without seriously disrupting the financial markets would lead to another leg up in this bull market most likely starting this fall.

    We are in a narrow news sensitive market. Unlike the ones that bedeviled us over the years with negatives knifing us from all directions, this one is focused on commentary out of the Federal Reserve regarding taper.

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    TODAY:

    Odds slightly favor a rally in the stock market today, even the bond market which is overdue for a bounce.

    Whether a rally today and Wednesday has a chance to hold would depend on how the Street interprets the minutes released from the FOMC tomorrow at 2:00.

    Without new insight, the market will resume its decline into September.

    If the Street likes what it reads, expect stability and a saw-toothed market action into mid-September.

    Resistance DJIA: 15,095 (S P 500: 1,659)

    Support: DJIA: 14,920 (S P 500: 1,635)

    Investor s first read an edge before the open

    DJIA: 15,010.74

    S P 500: 1,646.86

    Nasdaq Comp.:3,589.08

    Russell 2000: 1,013.25

    Tuesday, August 20, 2013 (9:15 a.m.)

    TECHNICAL OBSERVATION STOCKS:

    The following are observations based solely on technical analysis and don t give consideration to fundamentals or changes in brokerage ratings which can have an immediate impact on stocks, justified or not. The idea here is to give readers insight into the likely trends and turns in the stock s price, short-and long-term.

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    I will most likely focus on quality stocks that have had a decline and seek to assist readers in targeting points where the stock will find temporary support levels and hopefully the final support level from which the stock can find a turning point.

    Again, these are purely technical assessments without consideration for fundamentals.

    Apple(AAPL: $507.74)

    Pattern: Positive, consolidation possible

    Resistance: $509

    Support is $503

    Facebook (FB – $37.81)

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    PulteGroup (PHM- $15.65)

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    Resistance: $16.15

    Support: $15.65

    Buying at the close when PHM hit support at $15.65 suggests interest has picked up.

    Homebuilding group is recovering in face of mortgage rate jitters.

    I do not own, nor am I short AAPL, FB, IBM, or PHM

    ECONOMIC REPORTS:

    Thursday reports dominate the week.

    For a detailed account of past and current economic reports, including charts go to: mam.econoday.com – .

    MONDAY: No major reports

    TUESDAY:

    Chicago Fed National Activity Rpt. (8:30) No projection available

    WEDNESDAY:

    Existing Home Sales(10:00) Proj.: 5.15 million rate July vs. 5.08 million June

    FOMC minutes made public 2:00 p.m.

    THURSDAY:

    Jobless Claims (8:30) Proj.: 329,000 for week ended 8.17, up 9,000 from a week ago.

    PMI Mfg Ix. (8:58) Proj.: Index for August of 53.5 vs. 53.7 mid-month.

    FHFA House Price Ix. (9:00) Proj.: +0.6 pct June vs. +0.7 pct May

    Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Ix. (9:45)

    Leading Indicators (10:00) Proj.: +0.5 pct. June vs. +0.2 pct May.

    Kansas City Fed Mfg. Ix. (11:00) Proj.: Index rise to +5 in August vs. index of 6 in May

    Federal Reserve s Richard Fisher speaks (2:00)

    .FRIDAY:

    New Home Sales (10:00) Proj.: 487,000 unit rate in July vs. 497,000 rate in June

    RECENT POSTS: 2013

    Aug 13 DJIA 15,419 Homebuilders Ready for a Bounce ?

    Aug 14 DJIA 15,451 Hindenburg Omen Worth the Worry ?

    Aug 15 DJIA 15,337 October Buying Opportunity at Much Lower Levels

    Aug 16 DJIA 15,112 Fed Pressed for Clarification Rallies Suspect

    Aug 19 DJIA 15,081 Will Fed Intervene to Stop the Carnage ?

    *Bloomberg.com

    George Brooks

    Investor s first read an edge before the open

    ..

    The writer of Investor s first read, George Brooks, is not registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk. Brooks may buy or sell stocks referred to herein.

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    (Credit:
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    Mexican Marines nabbed Trevino Morales and two others on a dirt road southwest of the city Monday without a shot being fired. On Tuesday, residents held their tongues and waited. Soldiers stood guard behind stacked sandbags, while Marines, state and federal police cruised the city of 350,000 residents in highly visible armed convoys.
    “We’re waiting,” said . The 54-year-old wasn’t talking about passing the time with his two friends in the slim shade of a downtown parking lot. He meant waiting for bloodshed.
    “Truth is, it’s a little tense,” chimed in his friend, who only gave his name as Sergio. “There could be reprisals.” Sergio, 44, who described himself as a laborer, noted that Trevino Morales was from Nuevo Laredo and has family that could push for a response.
    Nuevo Laredo has the feel of a border city where commerce rules. The downtown is a grid of congested narrow streets filled with businesses. Street performers jostle with windshield cleaners for drivers’ attention at the busiest intersections. Meanwhile tractor-trailers filled with products for the U.S. market rumble along wide roads on the perimeter toward the international bridges.
    On Tuesday, four pickup trucks full of state police armed with assault rifles sat across the street from city hall where grenades have been lobbed in the past. Not surprisingly, a city spokesman declined to comment and the mayor was unavailable. City officials also had nothing to say in February after their police chief, , disappeared, except that they were waiting for him to come back.
    They’re still waiting.
    A truckload of soldiers sat amid shiny new Fords at a dealership on the outskirts of the city. No one was willing to talk there either. This is the art of survival in Nuevo Laredo, the lessons of experience. In 2011, the Zetas targeted a nascent attempt by residents to share information in an online chat room. At least three apparent users of Nuevo Laredo en Vivo were killed, including a woman who was decapitated. In case there was any mistake about the message, the head of , or “Laredo Girl,” was left atop a keyboard.
    The violence could also come from rivals outside the Zetas, residents say.
    The Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel have been fighting over Nuevo Laredo for years. Five international bridges connect the city with Laredo, Texas, and make it the southern border’s busiest commercial port of entry. Several years of calm followed a bloody battle in 2005, reportedly won by the Zetas.
    In recent years, however, violence has resumed, with the Zetas fending off attacks from the reportedly allied Sinaloa and Gulf cartels.
    There’s a crossroads with an overpass on the outskirts of Nuevo Laredo that is one of its busiest. A wide road flanked by assembly plants such as Sony and a Modelo beer distributor passes under the city’s main artery.
    Twenty-three bodies that turned up on one day in May 2012, were supposedly part of that battle with the Zetas’ rivals. Fourteen of those were found decapitated and dumped near city hall, while the other nine were hung from that overpass. Messages threatened the Zetas’ former benefactors, the Gulf cartel.
    Within sight of that overpass on Tuesday, a man said the arrest was good news that everyone knew, but no one was speaking of publicly.
    “They almost don’t comment at all,” said the man who declined to give his name out of safety concerns. He said people don’t want to get involved, even in conversation about organized crime. The city has so far been quiet, he said, but after nightfall they will see “if it gets ugly.”
    The man said he hardly goes anywhere except home and work and he didn’t expect improvement. The problem is that there are always others ready to fill the void, he said.
    Trevino Morales was his case in point. Z-40, as he was called, already was reportedly running the cartel’s operations when , one of the founding members and ostensible leader, was killed by the Mexican navy in neighboring Coahuila state last year. But Lazcano’s death cleared the way for Trevino Morales.
    And the violence doesn’t exclusively affect locals.
    In April 2010, a small explosive device was thrown over the fence of the U.S. consulate downtown causing minor damage and no injuries. The U.S. State Department temporarily closed the location before later reopening.
    Now, Nuevo Laredo residents are watching to see who comes next, fearful the succession could bring on a new wave of violence.
    “No one knows who are the good ones or the bad ones,” said a downtown convenience store manager who declined to give his name. He complained the blanket of fear in the city had long cut into his sales. Many downtown clubs and discos have closed because no one will go out after dark, he said. He claimed to not even have heard about Trevino Morales’ arrest because he doesn’t have a television in his store and there was nothing about it in the newspaper. “The truth is, the situation is very difficult. Nobody speaks of this world.”

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